I just solved Global Warming

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Metathiax
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Post by Metathiax »

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Scientists are smart, but I think many of them forget that not only scientists are smart.

Certainly not but Crichton is also a scientist...
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Post by Zudrak »

Metathiax wrote:
One of the things that saddens me though, is that he makes it sound as if anything which is associated with a high degree of uncertainty is just not worth studying at all... Would the world be better off if scientists focused their efforts solely on technological endeavors and left "the big picture" in the hands of fate and/or politicians?

If they want to theorize, then they must patently and CLEARLY state their theories as theories. Evolution is another issue where THEORY has been presumed as fact. Evolution is not empirical science. It is not "observable, measurable, testable, repeatable and falsifiable".

Thus, evolution and global warming are just theories -- and MAY be wrong. Wanting something to be true does not make it so.

The government of this nation is supposed to be "by the people, for the people, and of the people". There are enough scientists of many faiths who do not believe in either of these theories and their counterpoints must be heard in order to get all theories equal time. To refuse that is to become unscientific. The big picture must be left in the hands of the people and not in the hands of scientists or politicians.

One great scientific mind, George Washington Carver, was a Christian. The inventor of the MRI is a Christian. The hubris of some scientists claiming that faith and science are always at odds have forgotten that many of their forebearers were men and women of faith. They always use Galileo as an example of religion gone bad. Did Galileo suddenly become an atheist after the church's ruling??? No, he still had his faith.
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Post by Metathiax »

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If they want to theorize, then they must patently and CLEARLY state their theories as theories. Evolution is another issue where THEORY has been presumed as fact. Evolution is not empirical science. It is not "observable, measurable, testable, repeatable and falsifiable".

I'm talking about fate as in destiny not faith as in religion...

Evolution is one of the strongest theory known to science with countless examples that it works and no example that it doesn't. In fact, unlike the case of global warming, there is currently no credible scientific (only religious, social and political) debate on evolution whatsoever... You better leave evolution and religion out of this discussion. If not, would you care to suggest an alternative theory to evolution and explain how is it better? Ok, I'm going to turn the table on you. Since you define a fact as being an absolute certainty, name a single scientific find that can be viewed as being absolutely certain.
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Post by gideon_thorne »

Gents, global warming is a matter of science and pros and cons can be backed by facts from either side. Theological discourse is another matter and generally can only be supported by opinion, in any case the latter is really not germane to the topic of this thread and can, and usually does, lead to a rather messy can of worms opening.
But more germane to the topic at hand:
http://www.ucsusa.org/
http://www.ucsusa.org/scientific_integr ... ssure.html
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Post by mordrene »

I feel i have somehow caused this 9 page rant. so might as well fire it up again.

I found this sight and i think it sums up my point of view. Looking at the science, one cannot prove either way if the globe is cooling or warming, period.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... 034077.cms

this one is a personal rant. someone earlier said leave math to mathmaticians and the climate to climatologists. so what do climatologists use to predict things, the psychic network, tarot cards, reading the bones? they use math. all science breaks down to math. Biology is applied chemistry. Chemistry is applied physics. Physics is the laws of the "known universe" as defined by math. so to say leave math to the mathmaticians is just silly. since tax day cometh, ask your accountant how they think of math. how about the computer designer who designed the computer that you used to make that silly statement. i bet they think maf is dumb.

another way to lool at it may be summed up by this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVnkd7ot_pw

sorry for the rant, i need to get that one out.

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Post by Breakdaddy »

Metathiax wrote:
Hmmm, Breakdaddy, what does that party of yours involve? I might be closer to not caring anymore than even I might have thought...

No worries, chief, we will come up with something (you bring the beer)! 8)
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Post by Treebore »

Dristram wrote:
Beautiful. Personally I've started my issue with science and scientists since I learned in the 1950s it was "scientifically proven" that smoking helped with digestion and everyone should smoke after every meal.
Scientists are smart, but I think many of them forget that not only scientists are smart.

Apparently you missed the part in the 90's where it was proven that the cigarrette companies intentionally lied to the government and the general public and why all the lawsuits against them after these findings were made were so successful. The "scientific facts" were found to be outright fabricated lies.

Of course smart people who are not scientists should be able to figure out on their own that inhaling fumes of a burning fire is not a healthy thing to do.

I think it has been very clearly proven that our lungs are made to process CO2 out and bring oxygen into our bodies. Some how that seems to escape the thoughts of way too many people. They keep smoking and inhaling all kinds of unhealthy stuff.

Plus global warming has plenty of hard facts. The only hard facts that are missing are the ones to give a definite timeline with. This inability to give a concrete and proven timeline is the ammunition used to discredit the "theory". So I guess we'll just have to wait and see what we can do after the polar ice caps have finished melting.

I live at 4300 feet above the sea level. I should be above the flood line if global warming becomes fact in my life time, which looks very likely.
Since its 20,000 I suggest "Captain Nemo" as his title. Beyond the obvious connection, he is one who sails on his own terms and ignores those he doesn't agree with...confident in his journey and goals.
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Post by Metathiax »

mordrene wrote:
I feel i have somehow caused this 9 page rant. so might as well fire it up again.

I found this sight and i think it sums up my point of view. Looking at the science, one cannot prove either way if the globe is cooling or warming, period.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... 034077.cms

this one is a personal rant. someone earlier said leave math to mathmaticians and the climate to climatologists. so what do climatologists use to predict things, the psychic network, tarot cards, reading the bones? they use math. all science breaks down to math. Biology is applied chemistry. Chemistry is applied physics. Physics is the laws of the "known universe" as defined by math. so to say leave math to the mathmaticians is just silly. since tax day cometh, ask your accountant how they think of math. how about the computer designer who designed the computer that you used to make that silly statement. i bet they think maf is dumb.

another way to lool at it may be summed up by this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVnkd7ot_pw

sorry for the rant, i need to get that one out.

Cool video but that article is more or less a rehash of Crichton's speech. Strickingly similar discourse, too similar...
I agree, math is the language of all science but it's not the same as other experimental sciences that use this language to quantify their observations. If taken alone, math would serve very little purpose much like the alphabet means little if it's not used to write books...
Quote:
The "scientific facts" were found to be outright fabricated lies.

I'll be speaking from personal experience as a novice researcher (so consider the following as my opinion), I think one of the great problems of contemporary science (in the past, there was a time when the products of science were seen more as curiosities than useful tools) is that most of its funding now comes from private interests. As a chemist, I have witnessed an increasing involvement of the private sector in the few years I have occupied this function and it has me very worried. Although political interests may (probably?) also play by those same dubious rules, it has come to a point during my graduate studies where some of my student colleagues were actually used as "cheap" (students are obviously offered a small fraction of the money given to industry researchers to get the same work done) labor by pharmaceutical companies, only to name that specific example. Those students actually had their company's logo displayed on their lab doors.

At first, it sounded as some sort of a publicity stunt but I soon found out that the same students couldn't publish their results neither in scientific journals nor even in their own thesis in order not to infringe their sponsor's patents and confidentiality agreements. Because of our lack (at least, in Canada) of public funding, companies are allowed to fill the gap and use public money and infrastructures to further their lucrative causes even though our universities are supposed to promote independent academic research pursuits to be publicly disclosed.

Although some might say that it's a good thing to have graduate college students work on projects which could have imminent industrial applications, it has come to a point where it clearly concentrates the focus of the researchers mainly on those subjects which are now obviously favored over pure academia. For example, we are now working on many nanotechnology related projects which are in fact abusive language (in the case of chemistry, you could argue that the whole field is about nanotechnology since most molecules are of the appropriate nanoscale). The popular nano terms are simply used to get more attention and funding.

Having the industries picking and choosing what are the "relevant" research subjects sure isn't in the public's interest for it is impossible to forsee the future applications of a given technology (similarly to what Crichton wrote) even if, at first, it seems to be useless. I think it would be pretty safe to guess that the discoverers of the microwaves didn't anticipate that we would all be cooking some of our food with them and walking around with cellphones in their near future. As much as I do agree with Crichton's proposition on holding independent double-blinded research methods in order keep them unbiased, I fear that it is as utopic as wishing for all countries to live in peace and harmony... I am afraid that, until realistic solutions can be found, the value of scientific findings has to be held to even more suspicion than the level skepticism required by science depending on whom brings them forth to the public. In other words, a scientist on the payroll of a tobacco company can't really be found to be a credible source of information on smoking even though he might well be the only source...

It's really disappointing to me, as a young scientist of an unrelated field, to find so many inconsistencies and incongruities in the research being done on (potentially?) important topics such as global warming after having superficially read more on the subject over the span of these last few days. Science and all scientists may end up being victims of their own hyperspecialization since they now have to rely on each other for knowledge on topics unrelated to their work (in his time, Newton could learn about all of the known science but, today, it would be humanly impossible for him to do the same). Unfortunately, if global warming ends up to really be a conspiracy and/or blunder of the scientific community (from which I (maybe naively) expect(ed) more), some opportunistic people (which were also involved?) will probably (certainly?) rejoice and seize the occasion to further their own egoistical goals while tring to discredit science as a whole. In my opinion, this is going to be a turn for the worst because, unlike science, the opportunists are never held accountable for their actions since they don't rely on facts in the first place...

Sorry for the lengthy rant...
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Post by Treebore »

Here in the US charges are being made against the current administration for censoring sceintifici research, to the point where the "released" news was the opoisite findings that the scientists wanted published.

Strangely hardly anyone in the US is upset about this now public fact. The news hardly even carried it and occassionally mentions this. With such blatant and proveable censorship by our government you would think the news outlets would be all over this, but are strangely subdued.

I can only come to the conclusion that the fact the news outlets are all owned by rich people with public affiliations with the current Presidents political party does indeed have something to do with how news is being reported, or not reported at all.
Since its 20,000 I suggest "Captain Nemo" as his title. Beyond the obvious connection, he is one who sails on his own terms and ignores those he doesn't agree with...confident in his journey and goals.
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-or- such a news story is boring and doesn't draw viewership. Boring stories don't make the news companies money. So it's a money thing for the public news sources.

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Post by rabindranath72 »

As an academic researcher (mathematician, in particular), I can assure you that what often passes for science (usually in the applied science fields, like medicine, biology, engineering, physics), even on important journals, is supported by statistical evidence.

Well, the truth is that often, this "statistical evidence" means NOTHING, since the said "scientists" do not seem to understand the theorems and conditions under which statistic applies. Unfortunately, it is quite widespread a certain "recipe book" approach to statistics, so said "scientists" simply take their data, do some statistical tests (without verifying whether some hypothesis are true), and claim "science" their findings. The problem is not statistics, nor mathematics, but the use which is done of it, quite often WRONG.

As an example, I invite you all to read the following article:
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/rajm/jspib.htm

It is written by a mathematician, who reviews the use that medical scientists do of statistics. Something to think about.

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Post by DangerDwarf »

Treebore wrote:
Here in the US charges are being made against the current administration for censoring sceintifici research, to the point where the "released" news was the opoisite findings that the scientists wanted published.

Strangely hardly anyone in the US is upset about this now public fact. The news hardly even carried it and occassionally mentions this. With such blatant and proveable censorship by our government you would think the news outlets would be all over this, but are strangely subdued.

I can only come to the conclusion that the fact the news outlets are all owned by rich people with public affiliations with the current Presidents political party does indeed have something to do with how news is being reported, or not reported at all.

It would probably be more upsetting if this weren't the norm in politics for the past...I dunno, quite some time.

This isn't the first administration who has done such a thing nor will it be the last.

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Treebore wrote:
Apparently you missed the part in the 90's where it was proven that the cigarette companies intentionally lied to the government and the general public and why all the lawsuits against them after these findings were made were so successful. The "scientific facts" were found to be outright fabricated lies.

Of course smart people who are not scientists should be able to figure out on their own that inhaling fumes of a burning fire is not a healthy thing to do.

I dunno, I'm one of those jaded people who don't believe the lawsuits of the 90's had anything to do with the tobacco companies lieing and had everything to do with being a great big money grab.

The whole feeding frenzy against "Big Tobacco" always made me think of Dennis Leary's stand up act in No Cure for Cancer:
Holy shit! These things are bad for you?!?! Shit, I thought they were good for you, I thought they had vitamin C in 'em and stuff.

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Post by Fiffergrund »

Treebore wrote:
Here in the US charges are being made against the current administration for censoring sceintifici research, to the point where the "released" news was the opoisite findings that the scientists wanted published.

Strangely hardly anyone in the US is upset about this now public fact. The news hardly even carried it and occassionally mentions this. With such blatant and proveable censorship by our government you would think the news outlets would be all over this, but are strangely subdued.

I can only come to the conclusion that the fact the news outlets are all owned by rich people with public affiliations with the current Presidents political party does indeed have something to do with how news is being reported, or not reported at all.

Do you have a source for this information?

Innuendo is unbecoming, particularly in a thread where the difference between fact and conjecture is being debated.

FEC data is available that discloses donors for political purposes. The names of the largest shareholders in the major corporations that own the media outlets are also available. These lists can be cross referenced to detail exactly who is donating to whom.

I'd suggest doing this homework and finding out the truth rather than spreading innuendo.
http://www.fec.gov/finance/disclosure/d ... arch.shtml

For example, I checked out the chairman of News Corp., Rupert Murdoch.

Among the recipients of his donations include:

Harold Ford Jr. (Democrat, Tennesee, ran for Senate)

John Forbes Kerry

Charles Schumer

Hillary Rodham Clinton

The CEO of GE, Jeffrey Immelt: (GE owns NBC)

Among the recipients:

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

Tom Daschle

Patrick Leahy

Max Baucus

Harry Reid

Byron Dorgan

The CEO of Disney, Robert Iger (owns ABC)

Among the recipients:

Harold Ford, Jr.

Tim Johnson

Christopher Dodd

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

Patrick Leahy

Tom Daschle

d**k Gephardt

John F. Kerry

Hillary Clinton

Mary Landrieu

Max Baucus

Dianne Feinstein

Rahm Emanuel

Henry Waxman

Al Gore

Barbara Boxer

And finally the CEO of CBS, Les Moonves:

Evan Bayh

Tom Daschle

Mark Green

John Kerry

Patrick Leahy

d**k Gephardt

Joe Lieberman

Al Gore

I'm doing a search on CNN's president, Jonathon Klein, but the site must have a lot of activity.

To be fair, all of these people donated to Republicans to some degree, but the vast majority of donations went to Democrats. And high-profile Democrats, at that. Keeping in mind that these are personal donations, why would these people donate tens of thousands of dollars to Democrats and then squelch news that might help them?

--------------

But, I suppose "BUSHITLER!!!!!!!ONE!!!!!! *is* easier.
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Post by Dristram »

Treebore wrote:
Apparently you missed the part in the 90's where it was proven that the cigarrette companies intentionally lied to the government and the general public and why all the lawsuits against them after these findings were made were so successful. The "scientific facts" were found to be outright fabricated lies.
Interesting...very interesting. I said scientists claimed smoking helped digestion, not cigarette companies. Your twist is what's interesting. Now, those scientists were paid by the cigarette companies to find a positive spin on smoking, but it was still scientists who either lied or were plain wrong.
Quote:
So I guess we'll just have to wait and see what we can do after the polar ice caps have finished melting.

I live at 4300 feet above the sea level. I should be above the flood line if global warming becomes fact in my life time, which looks very likely.
Wait...aren't the polar ice caps simply a mass of ice floating on the ocean? Like ice cubes floating in a glass of water? Explain something to me. If you have a full glass of water with ice cubes in it, and the ice melts, how come water doesn't overflow the glass? It doesn't, so I don't expect the melting of the polar ice caps to increase ocean water levels. Now, the melting of receding glaciers over land will cause water to dump into the oceans eventually through rivers and that will cause a slight increase. But not the polar ice caps...or am I wrong?

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Post by Dristram »

Treebore wrote:
Here in the US charges are being made against the current administration for censoring sceintifici research, to the point where the "released" news was the opoisite findings that the scientists wanted published.
Where is that, I'd like to read it?
Quote:
Strangely hardly anyone in the US is upset about this now public fact.
It's the first I've heard of it! And I'm an avid news watcher.
Quote:
I can only come to the conclusion that the fact the news outlets are all owned by rich people with public affiliations with the current Presidents political party does indeed have something to do with how news is being reported, or not reported at all.
Wow, I find it interesting that while liberal folk see the news outlets as being in the pocket of the president, conservative folk see the news outlets as being left-slanting and against the president. And they watch the same news! I guess the press might be totally centered and unbiased after all.

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Post by gideon_thorne »

Dristram wrote:
Where is that, I'd like to read it?

Check the links in my last post on this thread.
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Post by Metathiax »

Dristram wrote:
Interesting...very interesting. I said scientists claimed smoking helped digestion, not cigarette companies. Your twist is what's interesting. Now, those scientists were paid by the cigarette companies to find a positive spin on smoking, but it was still scientists who either lied or were plain wrong.

Wait...aren't the polar ice caps simply a mass of ice floating on the ocean? Like ice cubes floating in a glass of water? Explain something to me. If you have a full glass of water with ice cubes in it, and the ice melts, how come water doesn't overflow the glass? It doesn't, so I don't expect the melting of the polar ice caps to increase ocean water levels. Now, the melting of receding glaciers over land will cause water to dump into the oceans eventually through rivers and that will cause a slight increase. But not the polar ice caps...or am I wrong?

You are right as far as I know. Still, Greenland and Antartica are large land masses covered with ice. In the case of the Arctic Ocean, my guess (it's only an hypothesis) would be that the melting of the ice would actually slightly drop the sea level since ice traps air which also occupies a part of its volume and which will be released once it melts.

As for this smoking tangent, here's a funny/interesting excerpt that suggests that the ill effects of smoking have been known for quite a while :
Quote:
As the use of tobacco became popular in Europe, some people became concerned about its possible ill effects on the health of its users. One of the first was King James I of Great Britain. In 1604, he wrote "A Counterblaste to Tobacco" in which he asked his subjects:

Have you not reason then to bee ashamed, and to forbeare this filthie noveltie, so basely grounded, so foolishly received and so grossely mistaken in the right use thereof? In your abuse thereof sinning against God, harming your selves both in persons and goods, and raking also thereby the marks and notes of vanitie upon you: by the custome thereof making your selves to be wondered at by all forraine civil Nations, and by all strangers that come among you, to be scorned and contemned. A custom loathsome to the eye, hateful to the Nose, harmefull to the brain, dangerous to the Lungs, and in the blacke stinking fume thereof, neerest resembling the horrible Stigian smoke of the pit that is bottomelesse.
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Post by Dristram »

gideon_thorne wrote:
Check the links in my last post on this thread.
That article looked to me like some pro-global warming scientists have had their feelings hurt because the current administration doesn't stop everything to listen to what they have to say. It hardly came across as serious news, which explains to me exactly why it is not given much exposure in the news.

What is a "Federal Scientist" anyway?

Speaking of the news and global warming, I hear WAY more news reports in support of global warming than those that dismiss it.

But, I say again, I wonder what the mass hysteria would be if we started heading into a mini-ice age like happened in the 14th Century. THAT would be some scary happenings...yet after a few hundred years, without the humans doing anything about it, it went away. I bet today "scientists" would be feaverishly looking for ways to reverse it and blaming all of humanity for it.

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Post by mordrene »

you know another thing we need to consider on global warming, manbearpig.

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Post by Breakdaddy »

mordrene wrote:
you know another thing we need to consider on global warming, manbearpig.

See, that's what *I'M* talking about...
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Post by Treebore »

Ice, floating in water because in ice form it is lighter than normal water, only s=displaces about a third of its volume. So when it melts the 2/3 of its volume that was not displaced will fill up the oceans.

The scientists that predict how much our world will flood are not full of crap. It is hard mathematical fact as to what the flood levels will become around the world if all the ice melts.

Don't believe me? Take half a glass of water and mark your level, fill it the rest of the way with ice and mark where the level is, then cover it tightly (to eliminate evaporation factors) and let teh ice melt. Then note what the level the water is at.

This will give you an ultra small scale representation of how much the sea level will rise.
Since its 20,000 I suggest "Captain Nemo" as his title. Beyond the obvious connection, he is one who sails on his own terms and ignores those he doesn't agree with...confident in his journey and goals.
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Post by mordrene »

Breakdaddy wrote:
See, that's what *I'M* talking about...

I glad to see someone else gets it.

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Post by Dristram »

Okay, I looked deeper into the ice melting thing and the difference seems to be that the glass of water test is done with fresh water and salt water of oceans displaces ice differently because of its increased density and so the melting of the polar ice caps will most likely increase water levels.

All that said, I still argue to the scientists to prove this is not a natural occuring fenomenun of the planet. Especially since the ice of the world has been melting since the last Ice Age. And the ice may be melting faster(?) which to me would make sense because I've defrosted freezers and the more the ice melts, the more the temperature will rise, thus causing the ice to melt faster, causing the temperature to rise faster, etc. I see the Earth as going through a defrosting phase which is happening without our influence.

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Post by DangerDwarf »

It's not the floating ice caps or sheets melting that would cause a large rise in the ocean levels. This is because they are floating and already displacing water. Yes there would be a slight rise, but that is it.

It's been estimated that if all of the floating glaciers and icecaps melted, it would raise the sea level by about .5 meters. I'm not real great on the metric system but that's what? approximately 1 1/2 feet? Not bad considering thats ALL of the ice caps.

Now, it is a different story altogether if the sheets over greenland and antartica melt. They are largely on land and will cause a major rise in the sea level.

Metathiax
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Post by Metathiax »

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But, I say again, I wonder what the mass hysteria would be if we started heading into a mini-ice age like happened in the 14th Century. THAT would be some scary happenings...yet after a few hundred years, without the humans doing anything about it, it went away. I bet today "scientists" would be feaverishly looking for ways to reverse it and blaming all of humanity for it.

As a chemist, I'm not exactly environmentalist material but, to be honest, global warming or not (after all, debate over this matter may be diverting attention from other very important environmental issues), we can't seriously pretend that we are respectful of our environment. We obviously do not develop in a sustainable manner. If all of Earth's population consumption level was in any way close to that of occidental consumers, we would be in serious trouble. With 2% of the richest people owning 50% of the resources and 20% owning 80%, I wonder what would happen if the Chinese (20% of the world population) reached living standards similar to ours. I genuinely wonder what the economists think is going to happen? Infinite capitalistic growth? I'm no communist but a system which supports constant economic growth with limited resources sounds dubious to me even if it's apparently the best we've got.
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Metathiax
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Post by Metathiax »

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Ice, floating in water because in ice form it is lighter than normal water, only s=displaces about a third of its volume. So when it melts the 2/3 of its volume that was not displaced will fill up the oceans.

Right! Oops! This isn't a negligible factor, to say the least. Shame on me...
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Metathiax
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Post by Metathiax »

Btw, what's that manbearpig thing you guys keep talking about?
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Breakdaddy
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Post by Breakdaddy »

Metathiax wrote:
Btw, what's that manbearpig thing you guys keep talking about?

It's from an episode of SouthPark featuring a parody of Al Gore. It was pretty damned funny.

Here's an explanatory link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manbearpig
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rabindranath72
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Post by rabindranath72 »

Metathiax wrote:
I genuinely wonder what the economists think is going to happen? Infinite capitalistic growth? I'm no communist but a system which supports constant economic growth with limited resources sounds dubious to me even if it's apparently the best we've got.

This is a matter under intense study by mathematicians; many new models are being analysed, since the "classic" development models do not work anymore, since they assume an infinite "reservoir" of resources, which makes analysis feasible. When this constraint is removed, things get messy (from an analytical point of view). But it is indeed a problem, since currently models are used to take decisions in matter of resource allocation and development.

Cheers,

Antonio

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