Harry Joy wrote:
Seen at ENWorld today:
And Harry Joy lives up to his surname yet again by bringing us good humor. Thanks, Harry!
The D&D 4e speculation here has certainly been interesting, in terms of "Will 4e actually be a marked departure from the D&D-style fantasy rpgs, like C&C, that we've known thus far?"
Yes, I know that (especially here) there are people who fiercely prefer their chosen brand of C&C/D&D, but I think most of us can agree that C&C, D&D v. 1, 2, and 3.x all still share the same fundamental gaming DNA, regardless of induced mutations, in the same way that a Porsche, a BMW, a Ford Escort, and a Prius are all still recognizably automobiles, despite their obvious differences.
The question has been, then, "Is D&D 4e going to be a hang glider? It looks like a hang glider from here ..."
More seriously, is 4e going to change the meaning of the term "Dungeons & Dragons" from "a role-playing game with strategy and optional miniatures" to "a miniatures game with strategy and optional role-playing"?
The verdict's still pending, of course, and I know that.
What's been on my mind recently, however, is what happens after 4e releases?
It occurs to me that we'll likely see one of three broad scenarios, based (of course) on how popular the game proves to be after release.
Please note that by 'after release', I mean anywhere up to two years. WotC's parent, Hasbro, being a megacorporation, has the time and resources to "wait and see" how this latest sales move plays out.
I'm also aware that a large portion of the people who howled against D&D 2e and 3.x eventually bought in to one or the other game version -- I suspect Hasbro's people will remember this also, and wait for the dust to settle.
I mean, I fully expect to pick up at least the 4e Player's Handbook at some point myself -- I just don't plan on pre-ordering it, or rushing out to buy it ASAP. I also don't expect to do anything with it other than read it, but you get my point, I'm sure ...
So, the three broad scenarios following D&D 4e's release:
It's a big hit, just like Hasbro hoped. Gamers buy it, but so do the other demographics Hasbro has said they're aiming for: computer/console gamers and the ever-elusive 'mainstream'.
The result?
Tons of supplementary material (adventures, sourcebooks, etc), followed by 4.5 relatively quickly, to keep the frenzy alive, and 5.0 when the marketing well starts to run dry.
Probabilty?
Unlikely. As I've said elsewhere, what we've seen of 4e suggests to me that -- while Hasbro may intend to attract new customer demographics with the changes to D&D in 4e -- the fundamental nature of those changes (and what appears to be increased entry-level complexity in gameplay) makes me wonder if they'll be busy trying to retain the customer base they've got right now.
It's a moderate, circumstantial success. Enough gamers buy the products from sheer curiousity that Hasbro makes a profit over time. Enough gamers (and others) like D&D 4e sufficiently well (some, precisely because it's NOT like previous editions of the game) that they become hardcore fans, and support 4e rigorously and vocally.
The result?
Less supplementary stuff, because Hasbro doesn't snag the mainstream audience the way they'd hoped, and many gamers are neutral or indifferent to 4e as a concept (even if they buy the core materials).
4.5 comes less rapidly, and may incorporate a lot of "optional" rules designed to re-introduce elements of earlier D&D editions into 4e play, in the hopes of enticing those players who would want that.
5.0 is designed and marketed as "the best of both worlds" in an attempt to unify and reinvigorate the fanbase.
Probability?
My money's on this one, unless there's a lot more "D&D common ground" incorporated into 4e that we haven't seen yet (always possible).
The thing about megacorporations like Hasbro is that they have the time and the money to play out these longer-term marketing gambits (anybody else here remember "New Coke" ?).
Hasbro's not invested in D&D as anything other than a franchise, so they try this current strategy to see if it will indeed "grow the market share", and if it doesn't, they fall back to safe ground and concentrate on solidifying the market territory they already hold, or can win back with a little corporate diplomacy ("No, really, 4.5 and 5.0 will fix all that. We promise').
It's a clear flop. Current gamers turn away in large enough numbers that even Hasbro accounting notices, and other potential customer demographics ignore the game as if it were made up entirely of nerd cooties.
The result?
4.5 comes out as quickly as humanly possible, and is pointedly revisionist in tone and intent, moving the rules as far away from 4.0 as can be done in one volume. This is an interim attempt to salvage good will with the gamer fanbase, while lining Hasbro's pockets at the same time. Every one who hated 4.0 might buy 4.5 if you promise that it "fixes" those rules.
5.0 is announced very quickly after 4.5 runs its sales course. 5.0 is saturation-marketed as "A Return To Glory!"(tm) up until release. Its rules veer sharply back toward some version of the pre-4.0 rules.
Probability?
I don't think it's likely that 4e will flop dead on release. Hasbro looks at sales. If every curious gamer out there buys the 4.0 Players Handbook, even just to look at it, then that's profit to Hasbro; that's a "Yes" vote in the way they poll success.
I think enough gamers will buy enough 4.0 products to prevent the line from becoming a total failure. People may well hate what they see, or complain bitterly, but -- in the end -- you vote with your money. Your money says "yes" even if your mouth (and your posting fingers) say "no".
I do think D&D 4.0 will make enough money, just from initial gamer curiousity, to prevent it from reading as an unqualified flop in Hasbro's estimation.
I'm not saying that 4.0 will necessarily have sustained or ongoing strong sales past the initial wave of "curiousity buying", merely that the `first wave' will generate enough profits to keep the game out of the "utter flop" category.
Whatever happens, I'm relieved that I'l be here with "Castles & Crusades" instead. You may have noticed that, whatever may come of D&D, the likely end results still include more future versions of revised rulebooks to buy.
This seems likely to me; D&D as a "McFranchise"
Lastly, I am no psychic, and I'm only speculating here for friendly entertainment. I could be utterly wrong in everything I've said, and I readily acknowledge that.
So, if you're looking for an Argument, that's the door down the hall (as every Monty Python fan knows). This isn't even Contradiction, it's only speculation and idle discussion.
Comment as you like, friends, but let's not pretend that any of what I've written here is real, significant, or that lives depend on it. Do we have a deal?
TheNewGuy
