Interesting gamer study from 2000...

[Treebore]

I just saw this for the first time, so I thought others may have been as ignorant of it as I have been, and would be interested in seeing what it says. I am just copying and pasting rather then giving a link.

Adventure Game Industry Market Research Summary (RPGs) V1.0

Release Date: February 07, 2000

Summary prepared by:

Ryan S. Dancey,

Vice President, Wizards of the Coast;

Brand Manager, Dungeons & Dragons

Permissions: This file is Copyright 2000, Wizards of the Coast. This file

may be freely redistributed or quoted in whole or part, provided that this

attribution remains intact.

Methodology: Wizards of the Coast regularly surveys various aspects of the

adventure gaming channel; distributors, retailers and consumers to better

understand their preferences, concerns, and needs. That data is regularly

reviewed and distributed internally to senior management. The contents of

this file are excerpts from those sources; the source materials themselves

are confidential internal documents and are not available to the public. You

have my assurances that to the best of my ability, the information presented

in this document represents a fair and accurate representation of the data.

Sources: The primary source is a market segmentation study conducted in the

summer of 1999. No confidential information provided by non-Wizards

companies was used in the preparation of this report.

Exclusions: The internal information gathered by Wizards is considered an

important competitive advantage. Therefore, not all the information

available to Wizards is incorporated in this document, and there may be

areas where substantial, significant information is purposefully not

included. An effort has been made to ensure that the absence of any portion

of this confidential information would not render the material provided

herein inaccurate or invalid.

Pokemon Effect: As this study was conducted just as the Pokemon TCG

phenomenon was gathering speed. For this, and several internal reasons, I

have elected not to present information on the TCG component of the industry

at this time.

Updates: From time to time, I intend to revise and update this file to

reflect our ongoing efforts to understand the industry. When an update

occurs, the version number of the document will be changed, as will the

release date. Interested parties can write to me at ryand@frpg.com to

request an up to date copy of this document.

--------------------

Section 1: The Segmentation Study

Since so much of this data is derived from the 99 Segmentation Study, it is

important that the reader understand how this data was gathered.

For the purpose of the 1999 study, the following methodology was employed:

A two phase approach was used to determine information about trading card

games (TCGs), role playing games (RPGs) and miniatures wargames (MWG) in the

general US population between the ages of 12 and 35. For the rest of this

document, this group is referred to as the marketplace or the market, or

the consumers.

This age bracket was arbitrarily chosen on the basis of internal analysis

regarding the probable target customers for the companys products. We know

for certain that there are lots of gamers older than 35, especially for

games like Dungeons & Dragons; however, we wanted to keep the study to a

manageable size and profile. Perhaps in a few years a more detailed study

will be done of the entire population.

Information from more than 65,000 people was gathered from a questionnaire

sent to more than 20,000 households via a post card survey. This survey was

used as a screener to create a general profile of the game playing

population in the target age range, for the purposes of extrapolating trends

to the general population.

This "screener" accurately represents the US population as a whole; it is a

snapshot of the entire nation and is used to extrapolate trends from more

focused surveys to the larger market.

A follow up survey was completed by about a thousand respondents from the

screener. The follow up survey is an extensive document with more than 100

questions. The particular individuals chosen to participate in this expanded

survey represent the population, as determined by the screener. In other

words, the small detailed survey group can be reasonably extrapolated to the

larger screener group, and the larger screener group can be logically

extrapolated to the public in general. This is a common, standard, and

accepted methodology within the market research field.

The data from the detailed survey was collated and prepared by the Wizards

market Research Department, in conjunction with an external consulting firm.

We believe that the data is a fair and accurate representation of the hobby

game consumer profile and that it does statistically correlate with the

population as a whole in the US for the target age bracket.

--------------------

Section 2: Basic Terms

As a part of the detailed survey, the following terms and examples were

provided to the respondents:

Term Example

(*)Paper RPGs Dungeons & Dragons

Card Games Bridge, Solitaire,

Uno, Poker

Trading Card Games Magic, Pokemon

Word/ knowledge Scrabble,

Trivial Pursuit

Puzzle computer games Tetris

Non-competitive problem solving Sim City, Myst

Puzzle table games Jenga, Dominoes

Class board games Chess, Monopoly, Go

Action/Shooter/Arcade Doom, Mortal Kombat

Miniatures table-top fantasy/sci-fi Warhammer

Games that use miniatures Battletech

War games Historical

Simulations Flight/car

Simulators

Strategy games Risk, Civilization

Social/party games Charades,

Pictionary

Strategic sport simulations Madden, MLB

Other non-sport games N/A

Specific questions were also designed to separate users of computer Role

Playing Games vs. paper Role Playing Games.

(*) For my own purposes, I choose to use the term Tabletop RPGs in this

document; the term paper RPGs was used in the study. The terms are

synonyms; my choice is simply personal. I believe that in the fairly near

future paper RPGs will hybridize with computer assistance not becoming

computer RPGs as that term is commonly understood, but not being games

played simply with paper anymore either. Consider this a forward looking

terminology.

The term D&D is used herein to describe all flavors and types of D&D play;

from old white box players up to people playtesting 3rd Edition.

--------------------

Section 3: Basic Demographics

The study provides the following information about the basic demographics of

the tabletop RPG marketplace:

Size: 6% play or have played TRPGs (~ 5.5 million

people)

3% play monthly (~ 2.25 million people)

Gender: 19% are female (monthly players)

Crossover: 17% of the total play MWGs monthly

46% of the total play computer RPGs monthly

26% of the total play TCGs monthly

The study provides the following information about the basic demographics of

the computer RPG marketplace:

Size: 8% play or have played CRPGs (~7.3 million

people)

5% play monthly (~4.5 million people)

Gender: 21% are female

Crossover: 33% of the total play tabletop RPGs monthly

21% of the total play TCGs monthly

13% of the total play MWGs monthly

The study provides the following information about the basic demographics of

the MWG marketplace:

Size: 4% play or have played MWGs (~3.7 million people)

2% play monthly (~1.8 million people)

Gender: 21% are female

Crossover: 37% play tabletop RPGs

40% play computer RPGs

29% play TCGs

The age breakdown of players within the marketplace is:

Age TRPG MWG CRPG All Gamers(*)

12-15 23% 27% 23% 11%

16-18 18% 17% 16% 7%

19-24 25% 24% 23% 13%

25-35 34% 32% 37% 29%

(*) All Gamers means people in the study population who reported playing

>anyleasthave never playedlessmore1-5 Years >5 Years

Expect another Year: 40% 75% 88%

We asked what the frequency of play was:

Total D&D 1-5 Years >5 Years

Monthly: 7.2 4.9 13.2 5.9

So we see that the longer a player is in the game, the fewer times per month

they play after the 5th year. Once the acquisition period (1st year) has

passed, frequency of play accelerates tremendously, then drops. One

explanation for this fact may be that since acquisition happens most often

at age 15 or less, new players may have a lot of time available for

gaming, but as they age, they have less time per month to play.

We looked at a few other questions based on how long a person had been

playing the game:

[ if this chart gets mangled in the formatting, it has three columns of

data ]

Typical 4 or More Average Sessions

Session Gamers In before Restart

5+ Hours Group (New Characters)

Total 28% 62% 15.4

1-5 Years 14% 60% 12.9

(*)>5 Years 42% 71% 19.6

(*) Remember that frequency of play is down sharply for these gamers)

This data tells us that the longer a person plays the game, the longer the

game sessions get, the more people play in the game, and the longer the game

progresses before a character restart. In fact, if you look at the >5 year

group, you realize that the big jump in long sessions and in average

sessions before a restart means that the 5+ year gamers are playing the same

characters, on average, vastly longer than anyone else.

One conclusion might be that it takes 5 years for a player to really master

the system and really figure out what kind of character that player likes to

play.

The following financial figures are for TRPG players in general (D&D

information, where available, is provided as well)

This data seems to validate the theory that young gamers, while very active,

dont spend a lot of money. (The following data is reported by for RPG

expenditures) The big dollars come from adults...

Total spending by age:

12-17: $297

18-24: $850

25-25: $2,213

And, the longer they stay in the category, the greater their total

outlays...

Play 5 Years: $2,502

And if they can be induced to become a DM/GM, expenditures skyrocket.

Will DM/GM: $2,048

Will not DM/GM: $401

Some breakouts for the D&D population in particular

Total D&D spending by age:

12-17: $164

18-24: $443

25-35: $1,642

Monthly D&D spending by age:

12-17: $10

18-24: $12

25-35: $14

Total D&D spending by time in game:

5 Years: 1,756

Monthly D&D spending by time in game:

<=1 Year: $7

1-5 Years: $22

5 Years: $16

(Interesting note: Monthly spending in the first five years after adoption

of the game is higher than the spending beyond that point though the

older, longer gamer plays the game more, they spend less. This may relate to

the frequency of a character/game restart.)

D&D DM willingness effect on expenditures:

Will DM: $1,444 total / $21 monthly

Will not DM: $187 total / $7 monthly

(Interesting note here: Even people who dont DM buy a heck of a lot more

than just a PHB...)

Effect of miniatures addition to RPG mix:

Few miniatures owned/used: $139 total RPG spending

Many minis owned/used: $4,413 total RPG spending

We found that players who were lapsed reported that they had played

TRPGs but were not currently doing so; had spent more money than the current

players, and had played more different games monthly but interestingly,

they had spent less money, on average, on D&D than players who were

current.

(Current/Lapsed)

Mean RPG Spending Mean Total D&D Number

Spending RPGs Played

$1,273 / $1,667 $895 / $599 2.2 / 3.3

One conclusion that could be drawn from this data is that gamers who dont

like D&D will spend a lot of money and try a lot of systems to find

something they do like before they quit. Gamers who like D&D will spend less

money and try fewer systems, but will spend more on D&D than those who don

t.

When asked why a gamer lapsed, the answers (multiple choices allowed) were:

Got too busy with other things: 79%

Too few people to play with: 63%

Not enough time to play: 55%

Found a game I liked better: 38%

Unhappy with the game and the rules: 38%

Cost too much money: 32%

Burnt out from frequent play: 29%

Getting back to the people still playing the games, when asked what games

TRPG players play monthly, the answers (multiple choices allowed) were:

D&D: 66%

Vampire: The Masquerade: 25%

Star Wars: 21%

Palladium: 16%

Werewolf: The Apocalypse: 15%

Shadowrun: 15%

Star Trek: 12%

Call of Cthulu: 8%

Legend of the Five Rings: 8%

Deadlands: 5%

Alternity: 4%

GURPS: 3%

When asked to describe aspects of their games, on a scale from 1 to 5,

answers were:

(normally/rarely)

Create Own Adventures: 42% / 11%

Create Own Campaign Material: 29% / 17%

Replay Adventures: 18% / 35%

Use adventures from magazines: 21% / 40%

Follow official D&D Rules 33% / 17%

When we asked RPG purchasers how many had purchased D&D at a particular

retail type, the answers were:

(*)Hobby/game shops: 36%

Book Stores: 27%

Comic book stores: 18%

Specialty toy and game: 17%

Large toy store chains: 15%

Conventions: 4%

(In other words, 36% of the respondents indicated they had purchased a D&D

product at a Hobby/Game shop.
_________________
The Ruby Lord, Earl of the Society

Next Con I am attending: http://www.neoncon.com/

My House Rules: http://www.freeyabb.com/phpbb/viewtopic ... llordgames

[Matthew]

Interesting stuff, Treebore.
_________________
It is a joyful thing indeed to hold intimate converse with a man after ones own heart, chatting without reserve about things of interest or the fleeting topics of the world; but such, alas, are few and far between.

Yoshida Kenko (1283-1350)

[GreyLord]

I agree very interesting.

[Treebore]

I bet this has changed a great deal:

(*)Hobby/game shops: 36%

Book Stores: 27%

Comic book stores: 18%

Specialty toy and game: 17%

Large toy store chains: 15%

Conventions: 4%

(In other words, 36% of the respondents indicated they had purchased a D&D

product at a Hobby/Game shop.
_________________
The Ruby Lord, Earl of the Society

Next Con I am attending: http://www.neoncon.com/

My House Rules: http://www.freeyabb.com/phpbb/viewtopic ... llordgames

[Treebore]

I would love to see the data James Mishler published when he was still with SCRYE and compare it to this:

Getting back to the people still playing the games, when asked what games

TRPG players play monthly, the answers (multiple choices allowed) were:

D&D: 66%

Vampire: The Masquerade: 25%

Star Wars: 21%

Palladium: 16%

Werewolf: The Apocalypse: 15%

Shadowrun: 15%

Star Trek: 12%

Call of Cthulu: 8%

Legend of the Five Rings: 8%

Deadlands: 5%

Alternity: 4%

GURPS: 3%
_________________
The Ruby Lord, Earl of the Society

Next Con I am attending: http://www.neoncon.com/

My House Rules: http://www.freeyabb.com/phpbb/viewtopic ... llordgames

[tylermo]

Star Trek would be gone in 2008, because Paramount and other factors caused the last two companies to lose licenses. Palladium(and I love the Rifts universe) would be much lower today. The White Wolf products would still rank high on the list. Star Wars would still fair pretty well. Shadowrun(while there is a 4th edition) would be significantly lower. Alternity has been gone for a number of years. Gurps would be about where they're at. Not to mention others who came along the way. Mutants and Masterminds, Savage Worlds, Castles and Crusades, True 20, etc. Those would figure in, as well. But, I'm sure the computer vs. rpg gaming numbers would considerably different today. It's hard to say. I found the study an interesting read, to say the least.

[Breakdaddy]

That is definitely interesting.

[papercut]

where did you get this?
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Someone send me some dice!

[Treebore]

papercut wrote:
where did you get this?

I got it from a link on ENWorld. This apparently comes from WOTC originally.
_________________
The Ruby Lord, Earl of the Society

Next Con I am attending: http://www.neoncon.com/

My House Rules: http://www.freeyabb.com/phpbb/viewtopic ... llordgames

[papercut]

It is pretty wild, I am surprised Wotc let this info out. I wonder when wa it released and why? It has great historical value for sure, are they gonna release lots of 3e documents now that 4e is out?
_________________
Someone send me some dice!

[Treebore]

papercut wrote:
It is pretty wild, I am surprised Wotc let this info out. I wonder when wa it released and why? It has great historical value for sure, are they gonna release lots of 3e documents now that 4e is out?

Release Date: February 07, 2000
_________________
The Ruby Lord, Earl of the Society

Next Con I am attending: http://www.neoncon.com/

My House Rules: http://www.freeyabb.com/phpbb/viewtopic ... llordgames

[Barrataria]

Treebore wrote:
Follow official D&D Rules 33% / 17%

Nuff said
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Fantasy Roleplaying Supplements for Basic, Expert, and Advanced games, free for download or print-on-demand and available now! http://www.barrataria.com/

[Orpheus]

papercut wrote:
It is pretty wild, I am surprised Wotc let this info out. I wonder when wa it released and why? It has great historical value for sure, are they gonna release lots of 3e documents now that 4e is out?

It's just market research, so it's not like an alien autopsy video got leaked. It's interesting to read and definitely shows that they did their homework.

[Fiffergrund]

This has been public for a long time. Some of the nastier discussions on Dragonsfoot during the Edition Wars era came from this document.
There's a serious flaw in the methodology, if I recall correctly. I don't have the time or the patience to try to find out what it is, but perhaps someone will remember.
_________________
Sir Fiffergrund, Lord Marshal of the Castle and Crusade Society.

He Who Hides Behind The Elephant's Back

[serleran]

I find it interesting that they make no mention of who was given the initial "screener." Sure, they say an age range, but no geographic dispersion -- it could be completely localized (ie, 65,000 people in the Seattle area) or slightly larger (people on the West Coast) when it is a known fact that local markets can be, often dramatically, different from the general public -- for example, Toyota sells far more cars/trucks in California than they do in Michigan or Texas -- but they are still ranked 2nd overall (possibly ranked 1st now, as they had nearly overcame GM last year.)

I dunno. I would not have tended to agree with the results then but its funny to look at, regardless.